Applying project management to an election run (part three)

The final (pre-election) article in my series covering my election run for city councilor of Ward 4 in Welland, Ontario shares some of the key risks I’ve identified with this project and how I’m responding to them.

In general, most projects will have two broad categories of risks – those which relate to the delivery of the project itself and those which relate to the outcomes from the project. Delivery risks will affect the ability of the team to complete the project within normal constraints such as scope, schedule, cost, quality and team member availability. Outcome risks will impact the realization of expected benefits.

For each category, I will provide the key risks I’ve identified, their qualitative impact and likelihood of realization and the risk responses I’ve implemented or plan to implement.

Delivery Risks

Increased costs due to inflation or increased demand might cause the project to exceed its approved budget. The impact of the risk is high and the probability is moderate given the current economic conditions. I am attempting to mitigate this risk by identifying multiple suppliers for the products and services I’ll be procuring to ensure I’m getting good prices and will reduce its impact (if the risk is realized) by cutting back on what I will be purchasing.

Another risk related to products and services is that supply chain delays might increase the likelihood of not receiving procured items on time before the election date. The impact of this risk is high but the probability is low as the items being procured are readily available. The same response as in the previous risk will address this risk.

Given the large number of bylaws and regulations related to the election, there is a chance that I or one of the volunteers supporting my campaign might break one of the rules resulting in fines, disqualification from the election or other penalties. The likelihood of occurrence is moderate and the impact would be high. My mitigation risk response has been to thoroughly study all the official election documentation and to seek clarification from election officials whenever I run into a scenario which is not explicitly permitted or prohibited.

Ward 4 has over 6500 residents (as per the previous 2018 election data). I’m planning to go door-to-door introducing myself to homeowners on a number of the main streets within the ward in early September once the start date for posting lawn signs has passed. I’m not planning to visit any given house more than once. As such, there is a risk that if a large number of residents are not home when I visit, the effectiveness of this activity will be reduced. The impact is high but the probability is low given both the demographics of the city and kids will be back to school which means fewer families would be out of town on vacation. I will try to reduce the likelihood of occurrence by concentrating my visits in the early evening and on weekends.

Outcome Risks

Given that under 35% of the eligible voters participated in the last municipal election, there is a high probability, high impact risk that even if I am successful in creating sufficient awareness about myself, sufficiently few residents will turn out to vote which could favor the incumbents more than a newcomer. To mitigate the likelihood of this risk being realized, a key component of my campaign is to raise awareness about the upcoming election and to encourage residents to vote.

Finally, there is the risk that in spite of my campaign, I might get insufficient votes to be one of the two winners in my ward. The impact would, of course, be high and the likelihood of realization is moderate. My entire campaign is a response to address this risk so hopefully it will be successful!

(If you liked this article, why not pick up my book Easy in Theory, Difficult in Practice which contains 100 other lessons on project leadership? It’s available on Amazon.com and on Amazon.ca as well as a number of other online book stores)

Applying project management to an election run (part two)

In my previous article, I provided an overview of my current personal project of preparing for and running for election as one the city councilors in Welland, Ontario.

With a good understanding of the constraints for this work, this week’s article will focus on three key knowledge areas, namely scope, schedule and cost and how those will be managed over the life of the project.

There are three key deliverables for this project: candidate registration, the campaign itself and the post-campaign financial report.

The first and last deliverables are well defined as the requirements for those are specified by the city’s election officer and by the provincial guide for municipal elections. The first required me to get 25 endorsements from local residents, pay a nomination fee and complete some paperwork. The last will require me to complete a formal financial summary of campaign contributions and expenses and to submit it to the city by a specified deadline. As such, a predictive approach can be used for the management of both of these deliverables.

Not having run for public office before, it would be unwise for me to attempt to define the full scope of the campaign deliverable up front. Based on the time and budget remaining, certain work packages may be added, dropped or reprioritized. Therefore, an adaptive approach will make the most sense for completing this deliverable.

Outside of any restrictions imposed by the city or province, I have significant latitude on how to proceed. I have three objectives:

1. To increase resident awareness of the upcoming election and the importance in their voting
2. To create or increase awareness of myself as a candidate
3. To convince a majority of eligible voters within my ward to vote for me

Given the limited budget I have set for the project, the specific levers I use will be based on maximizing the “bang for the buck”. I’ve reviewed the financial statements from the candidates in the most recent election as well as solicited ideas from my volunteer team.

I have elected to go with:

• A campaign website
• Lawn signs
• Door hangers (i.e. one page cardboard brochures which can be hung off front door handles)
• A one time advertisement in our local newspaper
• Door-to-door introductions

These tactics will leave me with just under 25% of my budget. This will be kept in reserve to be used for any cheap, quick wins which are identified closer to the election date.

Each of the deliverables has a set time window.

Candidate nominations can be submitted anytime between May 2 to August 19. Campaigning can commence anytime from the time when nomination papers have been filed and formally accepted to the election date which is October 24. Signs can be placed on lawns from September 9 and must be removed three days after the election date. And financial statements for the campaign are required to be submitted no later than March 31, 2023.

Having these key dates defined up front simplifies the planning process. For example, the constraint on how early signs can be placed will also set the date for when I’d need to have door hangers and lawn signs available to be given out.

Cost management is quite simple as I will only be paying for the procured campaign products or services. My time and that of my volunteer team is not being estimated, tracked or expensed.

In next week’s (final) article of this series, I will cover the key project risks as well as the responses implemented to address them.

(If you liked this article, why not pick up my book Easy in Theory, Difficult in Practice which contains 100 other lessons on project leadership? It’s available on Amazon.com and on Amazon.ca as well as a number of other online book stores)

Applying project management to an election run (part one)

Last year I wrote three articles about the project management tools and techniques I used for managing our inter-city relocation. Every four years, the municipalities within the province of Ontario hold elections for city council, the role of mayor, school board trustees and regional councillors. With the elections coming up this October, I decided a few weeks ago to run for one of the two city councillor roles within my ward in Welland (for more information about my platform, feel free to visit my campaign website at kiron4welland.com).

This initiative would meet most operational definitions for what constitutes a project. It is time-bound as election day is October 24. It is a unique endeavor as running for office is different each time one does it. And it will (hopefully!) produce the valuable result of my receiving the most votes by my neighbors within my ward.

As I’ve written previously, it is important to understand what constraints exist on a project as well as which constraint is the most critical. In the case of this project, many usual constraints apply including:

Time: the main accomplishment for the project will need to be completed no later than the end of election day

Cost: election rules mandate the maximum amount which a candidate can contribute towards their campaign or can spend as expenses. Given that there isn’t a significant financial return on investment for this project, I have set a modest limit on personal contributions and campaign expenses which is well within the limits set by the rules. As such, there is some flexibility for cost.

Scope: there is quite a bit of flexibility regarding both what you can run for (e.g. mayor, city councillor in one of multiple wards) as well as how you go about convincing citizens to vote for you.

Quality: the election rules do provide clear guidance on the types of activities which are not permitted such as paying people to vote for you or using city resources to further your campaign. There are also municipal by-laws for street signs which provide quality requirements such as content, size, placement, and timing for placing and removing signs.

Resources: while there aren’t any constraints on materials or equipment (so long as they will fit within the costs allocated), people’s time is the primary resource constraint for this project. However, as I do have a few neighbours who have indicated that they would be happy to support my campaign, there is some flexibility here.

Knowledge: while knowledge is an enabler, limited knowledge can act as a constraint. There are two limits which apply to this project:

• My limited first-hand knowledge of running for office. While I was elected three times as a director on the board of the PMI Lakeshore Chapter almost twenty years ago, the complexity of that project was much lower and the odds were much more in my favor than this project.
• The knowledge which my ward’s citizens have about the upcoming municipal elections in general and of me, specifically, as I’ve only lived here for a year.

The good thing is that while knowledge constraints are a major limiting factor, reducing their impact is quite achievable within the time line of this project.

Having provided my analysis of the constraints I’m facing, next week’s article will cover the approach I’m using to manage the different PMBOK knowledge areas for this project.

(If you liked this article, why not pick up my book Easy in Theory, Difficult in Practice which contains 100 other lessons on project leadership? It’s available on Amazon.com and on Amazon.ca as well as a number of other online book stores)